Is Rolex a Good Investment? A Dealer's Honest Take (2026)
Last updated: September 2026
Rolex secondary prices rose 6.7% in the year to June 29, 2026, according to Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts' 2Q26 report, and in-production Rolex models traded an average of 14.0% above US retail. Some models trade well above retail. Others sit at or below it. Whether that makes Rolex a "good investment" depends entirely on what you buy and what you expect.
A note upfront: We're watch dealers, not financial advisors. Everything here is based on what we see in the market every day. We could be wrong. Treat this as one dealer's perspective, not investment advice.
Table of Contents
Where the Rolex Market Stands Right Now
The secondary market is in a different place than it was in 2022. The speculative frenzy that pushed prices to absurd highs has cooled. What's replaced it, according to WatchCharts, is more organic demand: collectors buying what they actually want to wear, not flipping for quick profit.
Here are the WatchCharts brand price trackers as of June 29, 2026:
| Brand | 2Q26 Change | 12-Month Change |
|---|---|---|
| Rolex | +1.0% | +6.7% |
| Patek Philippe | +2.2% | +18.8% |
| Audemars Piguet | +1.5% | +6.4% |
| Tudor | +2.6% | +8.5% |
| Omega | +0.9% | +6.6% |
Source: WatchCharts brand price trackers via Morgan Stanley's 2Q26 note (July 16, 2026), prices as of June 29, 2026
The WatchCharts Overall Market price tracker rose 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, its fourth straight quarter of gains above 1%. 27 of the 35 brands tracked were up for the quarter, and 29 of 35 were up year over year. This isn't one brand carrying the market. It's broad-based.
What's driving it? A few things are stacking up: gold prices are elevated, Rolex raised US retail prices about 7% on average in January and again on June 1, tariff uncertainty on Swiss imports (a 15% tariff is now in effect), and the pre-owned market has matured significantly as a buying channel. Secondary transaction values hit record levels in 2025 for brands like Patek, Omega, Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, and Tudor.
Models That Hold or Gain Value
Not every Rolex is equal here. The models that tend to hold or gain value share a few things: they're stainless steel sport references, they have waitlists at retail, and supply on the secondary market is limited or declining.
The strongest performers right now (collection figures are Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts' value-retention averages for in-production models, as of June 29, 2026):
- Daytona (all four generations: refs. 16520, 116520, 116500, 126500): in-production Daytona models averaged 33.8% above retail.
- GMT-Master II "Pepsi" (ref. 126710BLRO): discontinued in April 2026, per Morgan Stanley's 2Q26 note. Prices climbed roughly $3,000 in the first quarter ahead of the news, then fell 2.3% in the second quarter because buyers had front-run the discontinuation. Final US retail was $11,800 on the Oyster bracelet ($12,000 on Jubilee).
- GMT-Master II "Batman/Batgirl": in-production GMT-Master models averaged 25.4% above retail, even as the Pepsi itself slipped.
- Submariner (current refs. 124060, 126610): trades above retail with steady demand. The no-date 124060 in particular holds well.
- Sky-Dweller: technically impressive, and the collection averaged 12.2% above retail. That's a smaller premium than the Daytona or GMT-Master II carry.
Discontinued sport models are their own category. The Submariner "Hulk," the Batman on Oyster, and older Daytona references have all appreciated steadily since leaving the catalog.
Models That Don't
Plenty of Rolex watches trade at or below retail on the secondary market, or only modestly above it. This isn't a knock on the watches. It just means they're not the ones people are lining up for.
- Datejust (most configurations): widely available, high production volume. On the same Morgan Stanley data the collection averaged 7.2% above retail, below the Rolex average. Good watches, but you're buying them to wear, not to flip.
- Yacht-Master (standard dials): the 40mm Rhodium is an exception, but most configurations trade below retail. The collection averaged 8.6% below retail.
- Cellini (discontinued line): Rolex's dress watch line never generated the same secondary market energy as the sport models.
The pattern is pretty clear: stainless steel sport models with constrained supply are the ones that hold value. Precious metal dress watches and widely available references typically don't appreciate on the secondary market.
Retail Price Increases and What They Mean
Rolex raised US retail prices by about 7% on average in January 2026. Steel models averaged about 5.6%, while gold averaged 8.7%. A second increase followed on June 1, 2026: Morgan Stanley puts it at 2.6% on average, with gold models up 5.0%, two-tone up 2.5%, and the rest of the catalog unchanged.
From where we sit, retail price hikes do two things to the secondary market:
- They raise the floor. When a new Submariner costs $10,050 at retail (up from $9,500), pre-owned examples at $11,000-$12,000 suddenly look like a smaller premium. The gap narrows without the secondary price moving at all.
- They push buyers to pre-owned. WatchCharts noted that secondary market transaction values hit record highs in 2025, and some of that is directly because retail prices keep climbing. A buyer who would have waited for an AD allocation at $9,500 might just buy pre-owned at $11,500 when retail hits $10,050.
Our Honest Take
We'll say what most articles on this topic won't: nobody actually knows if Rolex watches will keep appreciating.
The 2020-2022 boom taught everyone that watch prices can go down just as fast as they go up. People who bought Daytona references at $50,000 in early 2022 saw them drop to $30,000 within months. The market recovered, but that kind of volatility should make anyone cautious about calling watches an "investment."
What we can say from experience:
- Rolex holds value better than almost any other watch brand. That's supported by the data: among the eight brands in Morgan Stanley's value-retention analysis, only Patek Philippe did better at the end of June 2026. But "holds value" and "good investment" aren't the same thing.
- Buy what you want to wear. If the watch also appreciates, great. If it doesn't, you still have something you enjoy owning. That's a better outcome than holding something you bought purely for the return.
- The market is healthier now than it was in 2022. Demand looks organic, not speculative. That's a better foundation. But external factors like tariffs, interest rates, and gold prices can shift quickly.
- Complete sets matter. Box, papers, warranty card, purchase receipt. A complete set consistently commands a premium over a watch-only sale. If you're thinking about value retention at all, keep everything.
If someone asks us whether they should buy a Rolex as an investment, we tell them: buy a watch you love, take care of it, keep the box and papers, and if it goes up in value, consider that a bonus. That's the most honest advice we've got.
Sources: Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts 2Q26 note, "Swiss Watches: Secondary Market Keeps Ticking Higher in 2Q26" (July 16, 2026), prices as of June 29, 2026, for the brand price trackers, the Overall Market tracker, brand value retention (US figures), Rolex collection value retention (averaged across the five markets Morgan Stanley tracks), the Pepsi discontinuation and its second-quarter price change, and the June 1 retail increase. January 2026 US retail increase: WatchPro. Pepsi first-quarter run-up: Chrono24 and WatchCharts, March 2026. Pepsi final US retail: rolex.com (archived January 28, 2026) and US authorized-dealer listings. Pricing varies by condition, included accessories, and dealer. This article reflects one dealer's observations and is not financial or investment advice.
Related Reading
- Rolex Price Increases 2026: January and June Updates
- Rolex Raised Prices Again on June 1, 2026
- Discontinued Rolex Models Worth Buying in 2026
- Watches and Wonders 2026: What to Watch For
Frequently Asked Questions
Do Rolex watches go up in value?
Some do, some don't. Stainless steel sport models like the Daytona, Submariner, and GMT-Master II tend to hold or appreciate. Rolex's secondary price tracker was up 6.7% year over year as of June 29, 2026, per Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts. Widely available models sit closer to retail: the Datejust collection averaged 7.2% above retail, while the Day-Date and Yacht-Master collections traded below it.
What is the best Rolex to buy as an investment?
Historically, stainless steel sport references with constrained supply perform best: Daytona, GMT-Master II, and Submariner. Discontinued sport models like the "Hulk" Submariner have appreciated steadily. That said, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and we'd always recommend buying something you want to wear.
How much did Rolex prices increase in 2026?
Rolex raised US retail prices twice in 2026. In January, prices rose about 7% on average: steel models about 5.6% and gold models about 8.7%. On June 1, Rolex added 2.6% on average, per Morgan Stanley, concentrated on gold (+5.0%) and two-tone (+2.5%) models; steel was left alone. A 15% tariff on Swiss imports and rising gold prices were the main drivers.
Is now a good time to buy a Rolex?
The secondary market is more stable than the speculative 2022 peak, with demand that looks organic rather than hype-driven. Retail prices keep climbing (about 7% in January 2026, then gold and two-tone again on June 1), which narrows the gap between retail and pre-owned. Whether it's "good" timing depends on the specific model and what you're willing to pay.
Does Rolex hold value better than other watch brands?
Better than most. On Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts' June 29, 2026 figures, current Rolex models sold for 14.0% more than US retail on average. Of the eight brands Morgan Stanley tracks, only Patek Philippe (18.0%) did better. Audemars Piguet sat 0.3% below US retail and Tudor 36.0% below. Rolex is generally considered the most liquid luxury watch brand on the secondary market, meaning it's easier to buy and sell quickly.